Case Overview

An apparel chain wanted to study the impact of ATL & BTL activities on short term sales. They wanted to:

  1. Help strategize a media mix that will drive increase in Store Walk-ins using Market Mix Modelling
  2. The goal of the analysis is to estimate the impact of each of the driver variables below on Store Walk-ins
    1. Above the Line efforts (ATL), Below the Line efforts (BTL), Competitor activity etc. i.e.
    1. Walk-ins = fn (ATL, BTL, Competitive inputs, Offers…)
  3. Develop a simulator to test out various spend scenarios and their impact on footfalls

Solution Approach

The team proposed the following scope of study:

  1. Model footfalls as a function of marketing spends
  2. A state space model to estimate the base sales, and use the estimate to generate week on week contribution to short term sales
  3. Channel deep-dive to study the impact of print (Position*Size) on the return on investment
  4. A non-linear optimizer to test out spend and scenario based optimization of marketing spends to generate maximum sales


Incremental Sales generated by Marketing


  • Marketing efforts contribute 18% to the overall store walk-ins
  • Print : Among all the marketing drivers, Print drives the maximum footfalls (~10%)
  • Television: TV communication, though was aimed at generating online traffic (to ‘ generated 3% incremental walk-ins – Halo effect
  • SMS is the third biggest driver for walk-ins

 Print Deep Dive

Analysis focus:

  • While it has been established that the Print medium is the main marketing driver to generate foot-falls, the key questions to answer for:
    • Does Position of a Print Ad matter? Where to invest more Jacket v/s Back Page v/s Bookmark + Inside Page? Which is more effective?
    • Does Size of a Print Ad matter? Should the ad be more full-page focus or half page or quarter page? Which is more effective in terms of influencing footfalls?
    • Which combination is more responsive and driver high footfalls? The combinations being Full-Page Jacket Ad vs Half-Page Jacket Ad, Full-page Bookmark vs Full-page Bookmark + Inside page etc.

Spend Scenario Simulation

Distribution of Optimal Spend versus Actual Spend to achieve FY 2017+7% incremental walk-ins with lower TV budget